Timagwiritsa ntchito makeke pazifukwa zosiyanasiyana, monga kusunga kudalirika ndi chitetezo cha webusayiti ya FT, kupanga makonda ndi kutsatsa, kupereka mawonekedwe ochezera, komanso kusanthula momwe tsamba lathu limagwiritsidwira ntchito.
Monga ambiri, Gary Sharkey wakhala akutsatira zomwe zachitika posachedwa pakuwukira kwa Russia ku Ukraine.Koma zomwe amakonda sizingokhudza anthu payekhapayekha: Monga woyang'anira zogula ku Hovis, m'modzi mwa ophika buledi akulu ku UK, Sharkey ali ndi udindo wopeza chilichonse kuchokera kumbewu kuti apeze buledi mpaka. zitsulo kwa makina.
Russia ndi Ukraine onse ndi ofunika kutumiza kunja tirigu, ndi pafupifupi gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a malonda a tirigu padziko lonse pakati pawo.Kwa Hovis, kukwera kwa mitengo ya tirigu chifukwa cha kuukira ndi chilango chotsatira ku Russia kunali ndi zotsatira zofunikira pa bizinesi yake.
"Ukraine ndi Russia - kutuluka kwa tirigu kuchokera ku Black Sea ndikofunikira kwambiri pamisika yapadziko lonse lapansi," adatero Sharkey, popeza kutumiza kunja kwa mayiko onsewa kwasiya.
Osati mbewu zokha. Sharkey ananenanso za kukwera kwa mitengo ya aluminiyamu. Mitengo ya zitsulo zopepuka zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito m'chilichonse kuyambira pamagalimoto mpaka moŵa komanso zitini za buledi zili panjira yokwera kwambiri kuposa $3,475 pa tani - mwa zina zikusonyeza kuti Russia ndi dziko la Russia. wachiwiri wamkulu wogulitsa kunja.
“Zonse zili bwino.Pali chiopsezo cha ndale pazinthu zambiri, "adatero mkulu wa zaka 55, podziwa kuti mitengo ya tirigu yakwera 51% pazaka 12 zapitazi ndipo mitengo ya gasi ku Ulaya yakwera pafupifupi 600%.
Kuwukira ku Ukraine kwadzetsa mthunzi pabizinesi yazamalonda, chifukwa zapangitsanso kukhala kosatheka kunyalanyaza mizere yolakwika ya geopolitical yomwe imadutsa m'misika yambiri yofunika kwambiri.
Zowopsa zandale zikuchulukirachulukira.Mkangano womwewo komanso zilango ku Russia zikuwononga misika yambiri, makamaka tirigu.Kukwera kwamitengo yamagetsi kumakhala ndi zotsatirapo zazikulu pamisika ina yazinthu, kuphatikiza mtengo wa feteleza wogwiritsidwa ntchito ndi alimi.
Pamwamba pa izi, amalonda ogulitsa katundu ndi oyang'anira ogula akuda nkhawa kwambiri ndi njira zomwe zida zambiri zingagwiritsire ntchito ngati zida zakunja - makamaka ngati kukhazikitsidwa kwa Cold War yatsopano kulekanitsa Russia, ndipo mwina China, ku United States. .Kumadzulo.
Kwa zaka makumi atatu zapitazi, makampani ogulitsa zinthu akhala chimodzi mwa zitsanzo zapamwamba kwambiri za kudalirana kwa mayiko, kumapanga chuma chambiri kwa makampani ogulitsa omwe amagwirizanitsa ogula ndi ogulitsa zinthu.
Gawo lazogulitsa zonse za neon zimachokera ku Russia ndi Ukraine.Magetsi a Neon amapangidwa kuchokera ku zitsulo zopangidwa ndi zitsulo ndipo ndizofunikira kwambiri popanga chip.Pamene Russia inalowa kum'mawa kwa Ukraine mu 2014, mtengo wa magetsi a neon unakwera 600%, kuchititsa kusokonezeka kwa makampani a semiconductor
Ngakhale ntchito zambiri payekha m'madera monga migodi akhala atakulungidwa mu ndale, msika wokha wamangidwa mozungulira chikhumbo kutsegula padziko lonse supply.Kugula akuluakulu monga Hovis 'Sharkey nkhawa mtengo, osatchula kutha kwenikweni gwero. zipangizo zomwe amafunikira.
Mkangano pakati pa US ndi China ukukulirakulira, mphamvu ya Beijing pakupereka miyala yamitundumitundu - zitsulo zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito m'njira zambiri zopangira - zikudzetsa mantha kuti kumapereka zinthu zopangira. chikhoza kukhala chida chandale.
Koma pazaka ziwiri zapitazi, zochitika ziwiri zosiyana zabweretsa chidwi kwambiri. Mliri wa Covid-19 wawonetsa kuopsa kodalira mayiko kapena makampani ochepa, zomwe zimadzetsa kusokonekera kwakukulu kwa mayendedwe. , Kuukira kwa Russia ku Ukraine ndi chikumbutso cha momwe mayiko ena angakhudzire kwambiri popereka zinthu zopangira chifukwa cha msika wawo waukulu pazinthu zofunika.
Russia sikuti imangopereka gasi wamkulu ku Europe, komanso imayang'anira msika wazinthu zina zambiri zofunika, kuphatikiza mafuta, tirigu, aluminiyamu ndi palladium.
"Zogulitsa zakhala zikugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa nthawi yayitali ... nthawi zonse yakhala funso loti mayiko ayamba liti," adatero Frank Fannon, yemwe kale anali mlembi wothandizira wa boma wowona za mphamvu zamagetsi.
Kuyankha kwakanthawi kochepa kwamakampani ndi maboma kunkhondo ku Ukraine kwakhala kukuwonjezera zida zamtengo wapatali. M'kupita kwa nthawi, izi zakakamiza makampani kuti aganizire njira zina zoperekera zinthu kuti apewe kusamvana kwachuma ndi zachuma pakati pa Russia. ndi Kumadzulo.
Jean-Francois Lambert, yemwe kale anali mlangizi wa mabanki ndi katundu amene amalangiza mabungwe azachuma ndi makampani ochita malonda anati:Lambert) anati.” Kenako ndi za kudalirana kwa mayiko.Zangotsala pang'ono mayendedwe abwino.Tsopano anthu akuda nkhawa, kodi tili ndi zinthu, titha kuzipeza? ”
Kudodometsedwa kwa msika kwa opanga omwe amawongolera gawo lalikulu lazinthu zopangira zinthu zina sikwatsopano.Kugwedezeka kwamafuta kwa zaka za m'ma 1970, pamene kuletsedwa kwa mafuta a OPEC kunatumiza mitengo yamtengo wapatali kukwera, zomwe zinachititsa kuti anthu ogulitsa mafuta ayambe kugwa padziko lonse lapansi.
Kuyambira nthawi imeneyo, malonda ayamba kufalikira padziko lonse lapansi ndipo misika ikulumikizana. Koma pamene makampani ndi maboma akufuna kuchepetsa ndalama zogulira zinthu, mosadziwa adalira kwambiri opanga zinthu zina kuchokera kumbewu mpaka tchipisi ta makompyuta, zomwe zimawapangitsa kukhala pachiwopsezo cha kusokonekera kwadzidzidzi. kuyenda kwa mankhwala.
Russia imagwiritsa ntchito gasi kuti itumize ku Ulaya, kubweretsa chiyembekezo cha zinthu zachilengedwe zomwe zikugwiritsidwa ntchito ngati zida.Russia imawerengera pafupifupi 40 peresenti ya gasi wa EU. kotala la chaka chatha, malinga ndi International Energy Agency, pambuyo boma amachirikiza gasi kampani Gazprom anatengera njira yokha kukumana nthawi yaitali mapangano.
Gawo limodzi mwa magawo 100 aliwonse a gasi wa padziko lonse amapangidwa ku Russia. Kuukira kwa dziko la Ukraine ndi chikumbutso cha mmene mayiko ena amakhudzidwira kwambiri popereka zinthu monga gasi.
Mu Januwale, wamkulu wa International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, adadzudzula kukwera kwa mtengo wa gasi chifukwa cha Russia kuletsa gasi ku Europe.
Ngakhale dziko la Germany lidayimitsa kuvomereza kwa Nord Stream 2 sabata yatha, tweet ya Purezidenti wakale wa Russia ndi wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti Dmitry Medvedev adawonedwa ndi ena ngati chiwopsezo chobisa kuti derali lidalire kudalira gasi waku Russia. kumene Azungu posachedwapa adzalipira mayuro 2,000 pa ma kiyubiki mita 1,000 a gasi!”Medvedev adati.
"Malinga ngati kupezeka kwakhazikika, pali zoopsa zomwe sizingapeweke," atero a Randolph Bell, mkulu wa bungwe lazamphamvu padziko lonse la Atlantic Council, bungwe loganiza za ubale wapadziko lonse la US."Zikuwonekeratu kuti [Russia] ikugwiritsa ntchito gasi ngati chida chandale."
Kwa akatswiri, zilango zomwe sizinachitikepo ku banki yayikulu yaku Russia - zomwe zadzetsa kugwa kwa ruble ndikutsagana ndi zomwe andale aku Europe alengeza za "nkhondo yazachuma" - zangowonjezera chiopsezo choti Russia iletsa katundu wina.
Ngati izi zitachitika, kulamulira kwa Russia pazitsulo zina ndi mpweya wabwino kungakhale ndi zotsatirapo pazitsulo zingapo zogulitsira. Kampani ya aluminiyamu ya Rusal italembedwa ndi mabungwe azachuma kutsatira zilango zaku US mu 2018, mitengo idakwera ndi gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu, ndikuwononga kwambiri makampani amagalimoto.
Gawo limodzi mwa magawo 100 aliwonse a palladium padziko lonse lapansi amapangidwa ku Russia.Opanga ma automaker amagwiritsa ntchito chinthu ichi kuti achotse mpweya wapoizoni kuchokera ku utsi.
Dzikoli ndilopanganso kwambiri palladium, yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi opanga magalimoto kuti achotse mpweya woopsa kuchokera ku utsi, komanso platinamu, mkuwa ndi nickel kwa mabatire a galimoto yamagetsi. chopangidwa ndi zitsulo zopangidwa ndi zitsulo komanso chinthu chofunikira chopangira chipmaking.
Malinga ndi bungwe lofufuza kafukufuku la ku America la Techcet, magetsi a neon amawongoleredwa ndikuyengedwa ndi makampani angapo apadera a ku Ukraine. Pamene Russia inagonjetsa chakum'maŵa kwa Ukraine mu 2014, mtengo wa magetsi a neon unakwera 600 peresenti pafupifupi usiku wonse, zomwe zinawononga kwambiri makampani opangira magetsi.
"Tikuyembekeza kuti mikangano yazandale komanso chiwopsezo chazinthu zonse zipitirirebe kwa nthawi yayitali Russia italanda Ukraine.Russia imakhudza kwambiri misika yapadziko lonse lapansi, ndipo kusamvana komwe kukuchitika kumakhudza kwambiri, Makamaka pakuwonjezeka kwamitengo, "anatero katswiri wa JPMorgan Natasha Kaneva.
Mwina chimodzi mwa zinthu zodetsa nkhawa kwambiri za nkhondo ya ku Ukraine ndi pamtengo wa tirigu ndi zakudya.Mkanganowu umabwera panthawi yomwe mitengo yazakudya yakwera kale, chifukwa cha zokolola zosauka padziko lonse lapansi.
Ukraine idakali ndi masheya ambiri ogulitsidwa kunja poyerekeza ndi zokolola za chaka chatha, ndipo kusokonezeka kwa katundu wakunja kungakhale ndi "zotsatira zoyipa za kusowa kwa chakudya m'maiko osalimba omwe amadalira chakudya cha ku Ukraine," atero a Caitlin Welsh, director of the Center's Global Food Security Program.Say.American think tank Strategy and International Studies.
Mwa mayiko 14 kumene tirigu wa ku Ukraine ndi wofunika kwambiri, pafupifupi theka ali kale ndi vuto lalikulu la chakudya, kuphatikizapo Lebanon ndi Yemen, malinga ndi CSIS. kukwera ndi kuyika pachiwopsezo "kuyendetsa kusowa kwa chakudya chokwera."
Ngakhale Moscow isanaukire Ukraine, mikangano yazandale kuchokera ku Europe idalowa pamsika wazakudya padziko lonse lapansi. Mitengo ya feteleza yayikulu idakwera kwambiri chaka chatha pambuyo poti European Union idapereka zilango pakuphwanya ufulu wachibadwidwe pambuyo poti European Union idalengeza za njira zochepetsera kugulitsa kwa potashi ku Belarus, komanso. monga China ndi Russia, omwenso amatumiza feteleza wamkulu kunja, kuti ateteze zinthu zapakhomo.
M'miyezi yomaliza ya 2021, kusowa kwakukulu kwa feteleza kwavutitsa kumidzi ku India - dziko lomwe limadalira kugula kunja kwa 40 peresenti yazakudya zake zazikulu - zomwe zidapangitsa ziwonetsero komanso kusamvana ndi apolisi pakati ndi kumpoto kwa dzikolo. Ganesh Nanote, mlimi wa ku Maharashtra, India, yemwe mbewu zake zimayambira thonje mpaka chimanga, ali pachiwopsezo chofuna zakudya zofunika kwambiri nyengo yachisanu isanafike.
“DAP [diammonium phosphate] ndi potashi zikusoŵa,” iye anatero, ndipo anawonjezera kuti mbewu zake za nkhuku, nthochi ndi anyezi zinavutika, ngakhale kuti anatha kupeza zakudya zina zopatsa thanzi pamtengo wokwera.” Kukwera kwa feteleza kumapangitsa kuti awonongeke.”
Ofufuza akuyembekeza kuti mitengo ya phosphate ikhalebe yokwera mpaka dziko la China lidzachotsa chiletso chake pofika mkatikati mwa chaka, pomwe mikangano ku Belarus sikutheka kutha posachedwa. CRU.
Akatswiri ena amakhulupirira kuti chikoka cha Russia chomwe chikukula mu Soviet Union chikhoza kuchititsa kuti Moscow ikhale ndi mphamvu pa msika wambewu wapadziko lonse - makamaka ngati ikupeza mphamvu ku Ukraine. Belarus tsopano ikugwirizana kwambiri ndi Russia, pamene Moscow. posachedwapa anatumiza asilikali kuti akathandize boma la mlimi wina wamkulu wa tirigu, ku Kazakhstan. ndondomeko ya ndondomeko.
Podziwa za kuchulukirachulukira kwa zinthu zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira, maboma ndi makampani ena akuchitapo kanthu kuti achepetse kukhudzidwa kwa zinthuzo popanga zinthu zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira.Taziwona izi kuyambira nthawi ya Covid.Aliyense amazindikira kuti njira yabwino yoperekera zinthu imagwira ntchito munthawi yabwino padziko lonse lapansi, munthawi yake, "adatero Lambert.
Mwachitsanzo, Egypt yasunga tirigu ndipo boma likuti lili ndi chakudya chokwanira chochokera kunja komanso kukolola komwe kukuyembekezeka pofika Novembala. msika” komanso kuti Egypt yasintha magulidwe ake a tirigu ndipo ikukambirana zogula ndi mabanki ogulitsa.
Ngati kusungirako ndikuyankha kwakanthawi kochepa pamavuto, kuyankha kwanthawi yayitali kumatha kubwereza zaka khumi zapitazi zapadziko lapansi zosawerengeka, mchere womwe umagwiritsidwa ntchito muzinthu zapamwamba kwambiri kuchokera ku makina opangira mphepo kupita ku magalimoto amagetsi.
China imayang'anira gawo limodzi mwa magawo anayi azinthu zonse zomwe zatulutsidwa padziko lonse lapansi ndikuchepetsa zogulitsa kunja mu 2010, kupangitsa mitengo kukwera komanso kufunitsitsa kwake kutengera mphamvu zake zomwe zawonetsedwa.Awonetsa [kufunitsitsa] kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zake kuti akwaniritse mphamvu zandale," adatero Bell wa Atlantic Council.
Pofuna kuchepetsa kudalira dziko la China, United States, Japan ndi Australia akhala zaka khumi zapitazo akukonzekera njira zopangira zinthu zatsopano. Sabata yatha, Purezidenti Joe Biden adalengeza kuti akuluakulu a boma adzayika ndalama zokwana madola 35 miliyoni ku MP Materials, pakali pano US yekhayo. Kampani ya Rare Earth Mining and Processing ili ku California.
Dipatimenti ya Chitetezo ku United States yathandizira ntchito zingapo, kuphatikizapo pulojekiti yaikulu ya Lynas ku Kalgoorlie, Western Australia.Dzikoli lili ndi migodi ina yambiri yatsopano, yomwe imathandizidwa ndi boma la Australia.
Mu pulani yotheka ya pulojekiti ya Yangibana ku Western Australia, yopangidwa ndi Hastings Technology Metals, ogwira ntchito akumanga misewu yapakatikati mozungulira Gascoyne Junction, phiri la miyala lakutali pafupifupi 25km kumadzulo kwa Mount Augustus., lomwe ndi lalikulu kuwirikiza kawiri phiri lotchuka kwambiri la Uluru, lomwe poyamba linkatchedwa Ayers Rock.
Ogwira ntchito oyamba pamalopo anali kukumba misewu ndi kukumba miyala ikuluikulu, zomwe zinapangitsa kuti ntchito yawo ikhale yovuta kwambiri.” Iwo akudandaula kuti akuukira m’munsi mwa phiri la Augustus,” anatero mkulu wa zachuma ku Hastings, Matthew Allen.Kampaniyo yapeza ngongole ya $ 140 miliyoni yothandizidwa ndi boma la Australia kuti ipange mgodi wa Yangibana, monga gawo la ntchito yake yatsopano yofunika kwambiri.Mineral Strategy.
Hastings akuyembekeza kuti, ikadzagwira ntchito mokwanira m'zaka ziwiri, Yangibana idzakwaniritsa 8% ya zofuna zapadziko lonse za neodymium ndi praseodymium, ziwiri mwa 17 zapadziko lapansi zosowa kwambiri komanso zofunidwa kwambiri. zaka zitha kukankhira chiwerengerochi kufika pa gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a zinthu padziko lonse lapansi, malinga ndi akatswiri ofufuza zamakampani.
Gawo limodzi mwa magawo khumi a dziko lapansi losowa padziko lonse lapansi limapangidwa ku China.Awa ndi mchere omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito muzinthu zamakono kuchokera ku makina opangira mphepo kupita ku magalimoto amagetsi.A US ndi mayiko ena akuyesera kupanga zinthu zina
Ku UK, a Hovis' Sharkey adati amadalira kulumikizana kwake kwanthawi yayitali kuti apeze zinthu zotetezedwa. Poyerekeza ndi zaka zingapo zapitazo, tsopano mukugwira ntchito ndi magulu osiyanasiyana ogulitsa kuti mutsimikizire kuti malonda athu akupitilizabe. ”
Nthawi yotumiza: Jun-29-2022